The Dust Settles

Dusty bikes rejoice!  The metro trails have received rain five out of the past seven days.  Generally the rain has been fairly light but locations just northwest of the metro saw rainfall amounts top 1-2 inches with Tuesday morning’s thunderstorms….a good soaking for the Elm Creek and Hillside trails.  Additional thunderstorms Wednesday will certainly help to settle the dust even more on the trails.

CycleCast

The last hurrah comes Thursday.  Strong thunderstorms and rain Wednesday will slowly come to an end Thursday morning.  Before the rain moves out, however, much colder air rushes into Minnesota behind a Pacific front.  As this cold air meets the departing moisture, rain should change over to snow for a time Thursday morning in west-central Minnesota with a slushy inch of accumulation expected. Even areas west of the metro may see a few flakes but no accumulation.

Thursday: Morning rain, mostly cloudy & windy. H: mid 40s

Friday: Partly cloudy & cold. H: low 40s

Saturday: Broken sun. H: low 40s

Sunday: Partly sunny. Still chilly. H: low 40s

Monday: Partly sunny. H: mid 40s

Graph: Iowa State University

Models are coming into better agreement predicting close to one inch of rainfall for the metro.

Snow depth by Thursday afternoon. Map: weatherbell.com

Hurricane Sandy

Sandy is already giving me anxiety.  The hurricane has been battering Jamaica all day with heavy rain and winds up to 80 mph.  The concern is that, while the storm is in the Caribbean now, some long range models are hinting that the Sandy leftovers could “hook” into the Northeast early next week and become a once-in-a-lifetime storm.  Let’s hope not.

Map: weatherbell.com

One computer model (and there are many) has consistently shown Sandy plowing somewhere into the Northeast next Monday.  This model shows the central pressure of this hybrid (tropical/nor’easter) storm to be around 942mb.  That pressure is comparable to a strong Category 3 hurricane.  Good grief.  Granted, there are so many factors that go into forecasting in the tropics and seven days out is a long time.  Imagine dropping a stick into a river and trying to predict where that stick will be in five minutes…better yet…try to predict where that stick will be downstream in seven days.  Eddies, rocks, fish, leaves, stream flow, etc. all play a factor in the forecast.  Weather forecasting can be just as challenging.

All I gotta say is…glad Minnesota doesn’t have crazy hybrid storms!

 

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