Road Ride Time

24 Hour Rainfall (Area Trails)
Hillside Park: 3.5″
Lake Rebecca: 3.45″
Elm Creek: 3.03″
Theodore Wirth: 2.23″
Murphy Hanrehan: 1.82″
Lebanon Hills: 1.2″
Carver Park: 0.83″

Highest 24 Hour Rainfall Statewide
Zimmerman: 4.83″
Monticello: 4.79″
Buffalo: 4.33″
Oak Grove: 4.17″

Cologne, MN (Photo: WNTV Meteorologist Bryan Karrick)

Yup, I think it’s safe to say that the trails are definitely too wet for riding today.  As expected, a thin band of heavy rain set up from Marshall to Duluth leaving anywhere from 2″ to 4″+.  Total rainfall amounts will increase slightly as the rain is expected to continue through tonight.

24 Hour Rainfall

CycleCast:

Friday: Good day for a road ride.  Even though the rain is over, our area trials will need some time to dry out. H: ~ 70°

Saturday: Increasing showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. H: Low 70s

Sunday: Partly cloudy afternoon.  Warm and breezy.  Severe thunderstorms likely Sunday evening/night. H: Upper 80s, pushing 90°

Memorial Day: Dry.  Clouds may be stubborn to clear, though. H: Upper 70s

Mud Alert

Don’t clean the bike just yet.  A heavy rain event is on the way tonight that could leave 1-4″ by Friday morning.  The main event comes early Thursday as a sluggish cold front treks across the state. It’s not the intensity of the rain but the duration of a good, steady rain for about 3-6 hours tonight that could lead to flash flooding…and muddy trails.

Flash Flood Watch until Thursday afternoon

Rainfall: 0.5-4" through Friday morning

Based on the current soil moisture conditions it would only take 3.0″ to 3.5″ of rain to cause flooding.  I would bet the trail conditions will be too wet for riding later this week.

Inches of Rainfall Needed to Produce Flash Flooding in MN

Hey, it could be worse.  You could live on Mt. Waialeale, Kauai, Hawaii, arguably one of the wettest places on Earth, where 384.35” of rain falls a year.  There has been some debate recently within the meteorology world about the wettest place on Earth.  Many of these rain soaked locations are extremely remote without any reliable weather data collection.  It now looks like Hawaii may have been dethroned as the wettest spot.  Weather Historian Christopher C. Burt did a little digging to nail down the top ten wettest places on Earth.  Some of his findings may surprise you.

Also be glad you don’t live in Miami, FL.  On Tuesday, Miami International Airport recorded 9.7″ of rain!  What’s even more impressive is that 4.4″ of that fell in just one hour!  Talk about a tropical downpour!

Miami, FL Flooded Streets Tuesday (Photo: nikmartinezzz)

CycleCast:

Thursday:  Rain and thunder for most of the day. Cloudy. H: Upper 60s.

Friday:  Drier day for riding…road riding that is.  Trails will still be too wet from the previous day’s rain. H: Low 70s

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms are back. H: Low 70s

Sunday: Warmer, maybe more sun but still the chance of a rumble of thunder. H: Mid 80s

Memorial Day: Morning clouds/rain giving way to afternoon sun?  I’m optimistic. H: Low 70s

No Severe in Sight

One year ago, on Sunday May 22, 2011, eleven tornadoes touched down in eastern Minnesota, western Wisconsin, and northeastern Iowa.  One tornado rated an EF-1 struck North Minneapolis killing one person.  Later that same day, an EF-5 tornado devastated Joplin, Missouri killing 158 people.  It’s a sad reality.  Even if you take the necessary precautions and take shelter, it’s nearly impossible to survive the power of an EF-5 tornado packing winds over 200 mph.

Tornado Touchdowns on May 22, 2011

Compared to 2011, this severe weather season has been fairly quiet.  In fact, no tornado deaths have been reported this month nationwide.  Minnesota’s primary severe weather season runs from April 15 to September 17 with the peak month being June.  From 1980-2006 the day with the single most severe weather occurrences is June 10.  So June brides, you may want to keep that in mind.

2012 Severe Weather Reports

CycleCast:

While severe weather won’t be an issue this week, heavy rain will.  If you’re heading out to do some trail work at Carver Lake Park then take the rain gear along.  Rain arrives Wednesday afternoon with nearly an inch accumulating by Thursday morning.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see 2″ amounts showing up by the end of the day Thursday.  Rain chances will continue Saturday and Sunday.  I’m hopeful that the rain will end for Memorial Day Monday but with a weather pattern like this, I’m not so sure.

Minneapolis/St. Paul weather forecast.  Pure and simple from WeatherNationTV.